TERMS
A product that shows the state of the current
conditions or the state of the conditions at some time in
the past is called an analysis. A product that shows the
anticipated state of conditions at some time in the future
is called a prognosis. These terms are commonly
abbreviated as anal and prog, respectively, both
verbally and in text. Outlook and forecast are
sometimes used interchangeably with prognosis.
Correctly used, however, forecast refers to a
forecaster’s written or verbal interpretation of
calculated graphic or alphanumeric products depicting
the position and orientation of pressure centers, fronts,
isobars and isoheights, etc., and prognosis refers to the
graphic or alphanumeric product depicting those
conditions. Likewise, outlook refers to the forecaster’s
interpretation of a prognosis, typically 3 to 10 days in
the future, where the calculated information has a high
probability of changing based on the presence of minor
fluctuations in the conditions that cannot be accurately
anticipated. Outlook implies a lower level of
confidence or reliability than forecast. Certain graphic
products depict the forecaster’s interpretation of the
state of the atmosphere, such as a Horizontal Weather
Depiction, and is properly called a forecast.
The difference between graphic forecast products
and prognosis products is important. You will
occasionally be asked to explain certain features on
graphic products. This is typically done at stations
where a certified forecaster is on duty only during the
day but an observer is on duty around the clock. You
may explain what is actually indicated on a graphic or
alphanumeric forecast product, and you may discuss
what is actually depicted on analysis and prognosis
products. You may not, however, provide your
interpretation of how those parameters may effect
weather conditions that are not depicted. Likewise,
when reproducing a graphic either on paper or a video
display, you may not adjust the location of any feature.
In both situations your interpretation would be
considered a forecast. You may not provide your own
forecast until you have been certified as a analyst or
forecaster in accordance with the provisions of
NAVMETOCCOMINST 1500.2, Naval Meteorology
and Oceanography Command Training and
Certification Program.
Only a few of the literally hundreds of graphic
products available are intended to be used, without
additional processing, as briefing aids. A briefing aid is
any product designed primarily to be used in a briefing
to assist the explanation of the current and forecast
conditions. Briefing aids are frequently enhanced with
colors for weather systems, hazardous weather areas,
land and water boundaries, and other items of interest.
Briefing aids are enhanced with colors so that the person
being briefed can easily see the features discussed by
the briefer. The standard colors used are discussed later
in this section.
GRAPHIC PRODUCT LEGENDS
All graphic meteorological and oceanographic
products must have a legend block or legend line that
identifies the product and the information presented on
the product. A legend block, such as that shown in
figure 4-11, is typically found on products received
Figure 4-11.—Legend block from a NWS (National Meteorological Center) graphic product.
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