with values divisible by 5. Two different sets of
equations are used:
one set for a northerly zone,
between latitudes 27.6° and 40.0°N, and the other set
from longitudes from 65.0° to 100.0°W. The southerly
zone encompasses the same longitudes as the northerly
zone, but the latitudes are for 17.5° and 27.5°N.
The method described in the preceding two
paragraphs was tested by Veigas and Miller on 125
independent cases, about equally distributed between
the two zones, during the years 1924-27 and 1954-56.
The average vector errors in 24-hour forecast position
were about 150 nautical miles for the northerly zone and
95 nautical miles for the southerly zone.
30-Hour Movement of Certain Atlantic
Hurricanes
R. J. Shafer has developed an objective method for
determining the 30-hour movement of hurricanes by use
of sea-level data over the ocean areas and upper air data
over the land areas. Motion is described in two
components: zonzl and meridional. Westerly motion is
determined by consideration of the component of the
sea-level pressure gradient surrounding the hurricane
and is opposed graphically by the mean temperature
field between 850 and 500 hPa. The correlation of these
parameters is modified by extrapolation and the
geographic locations. Meridional motion is similarly
predicted by sea-level and thickness parameters
modified by extrapolation. The meridional and zonal
computations are then combined into the final 30-hour
forecast.
In a test of dependent and independent data it was
found that some 85 percent of the storms predicted in
the 31 sample cases fell within 2° of the predicted
position.
MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Griffith Wang of the Civil Air Transport Service,
Taiwan, developed a method for objectively predicting
the movement of typhoons in the western Pacific. The
method is titled A Method in Regression Equations for
Forecasting the Movement of Typhoons. The equation
utilizes 700-hPa data and is based on the following
criteria:
. The 700-hPa contour height and its tendency 10°
latitude north of the typhoon center.
. The 700-hPa contour height and tendency 10°
latitude from the typhoon center and 90° to the right of
its path of motion.
. The 700-hPa contour height and its tendency 10°
latitude from the typhoon center and 90° to the left of its
path of motion.
. The intensity and the orientation of the major axis
of the subtropical anticyclone which steers the
movement of the typhoon.
Percentage of frequency of direction of movement
and speed tables are provided for a rough first
approximation of the movement of the typhoon.
This method, as well as all other methods based on
a single chart, is dependent upon a good network of
reports and a good analysis. A full test of the value of
this method has not been made, but in limited dependent
and independent data cases tested it appears to have a
good verification and provides another useful tool in the
integrated forecast.
Full details on the procedure and application of this
method can be found in the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, Vol. 41, No. 3, March 1960.
Use of the Geostrophic Wind for
Steering
The expansion of aircraft reconnaissance reports
have made it practical to carry out more detailed
analyses of constant pressure surface over the tropical
storm belt and to make use of a forecast based on
geostrophic components at that level. This technique,
developed by Riehl, Haggard, and Sanborn, and issued
as an NA publication Objective Prediction of 24-Hour
Tropical Cyclone Movement uses this steering concept.
The technique makes use of 500-hPa height averages
alongside of a rectangular grid approximately centered
on the storm. The grid is 15° longitude, centered at the
initial longitude of the storm and between 10° and 15°
latitude with the southern end fixed at a distance of 5°
latitude south of the latitude of the storm center. A
more northward extension of the grid is used for storms
found to be moving more rapidly northward. The
relatively small size of the grid indicates that tropical
cyclone motion for 24 hours is determined to a great
extent by circulation features closely bordering the
storm, and that the average features outside this area will
not greatly affect its movement within the time interval.
The 500-mb chart is the basic chart for computations.
Comparison of Steering Levels
Another method that uses the steering concept is A
Comparison of Hurricane Steering Levels by B. I.
Miller and P. L. Moore of the National Hurricane
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