Center. In their study it was found that the standard rule
for steering tropical cyclones (the movement of the
storm from about 10° to 20° to the right of the current
flowing over the top of the core) was only reliable prior
to recurvature and that storms after recurvature
frequently move to the left of the steering current.
Operating on the premise that the motion of the tropical
storm is not governed by forces acting at any one level,
their study encompasses three levels, the 700-,500-, and
300- hPa levels. They found that the 700- and 500-mb
charts were about equal in forecasting hurricane motion.
In the final analysis, the 700-hPa level was selected and
combined with the previous 12-hour motion of the
storm. From their study, a slightly better verification of
predicted tracks of hurricanes resulted rather than from
use of sea level data (statistical method) or the 500-mb
chart alone.
The Basic Grid in Steering Tropical Systems
The basic grid is essentially the same as that used in
the 500-hPa method except that gradients were
computed at intervals of 2.5° latitude instead of 5°. The
previous 12-hour motion was also incorporated into the
forecast. This method was tested on 23 forecasts during
the 1958 hurricane season. The average error was 95
nautical miles for the 24-hour forecast and ranged from
15 nautical miles to 170 nautical miles.
A further explanation of this method and its
procedure for application may be found in the Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 41, No. 2,
February 1960.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
Tropical cyclone warnings are issued to protect not
only Department of Defense assets but also those of
allied nations.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings of the Atlantic
Tropical cyclone warnings are issued to operating
forces of the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and
the Caribbean region by NAVLANTMETOCCEN
Norfolk, Va. Warnings for the southern hemisphere are
provided as required.
NAVLANTMETOCCEN
primarily uses the National Hurricane Centers
interagency and public advisories as guidance.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and tropical depression
warnings are issued four times daily at 0300 UTC, 0900
UTC, 1500 UTC, and 2100 UTC. They are listed under
the MAANOP heading WHNT__ KNGU. The blank space
is for the numerical sequence of the warning.
Special advisories and warnings are issued in the
event of significant changes in intensity or movement.
Daily tropical weather summaries are issued at 1800
UTC from 01 June through 30 November for the
subtropical Atlantic (south of 30°N), the Caribbean, and
the Gulf of Mexico. Daily tropical weather summaries
are listed under the MANOP heading ABCA KNGU.
Tropical cyclone warning messages are transmitted
via AUTODIN and the Fleet Multichannel Broadcast
every 6 hours for storms in the Northern Hemisphere.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings of the Pacific
Tropical cyclone warnings are issued to operating
forces of the Pacific Ocean (west of 180° longitude),
Philippine Sea, South China Sea, Bay of Bengal, and
Indian Ocean in both the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
(JTWC), Guam.
Tropical cyclone warnings are issued to operating
forces of the Pacific Ocean east of 180° longitude by
NAVPACMETOCCEN Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
Warnings for the Southern Hemisphere are provided as
required. NAVPACMETOCCEN primarily uses the
National Hurricane Centers interagency and public
advisories as guidance.
Typhoon, tropical storm, tropical depression, and
tropical cyclone warnings are issued four times daily at
0300 UTC, 0900 UTC, 1500 UTC, and 2100 UTC. The
warnings from the JTWC are listed under the MANOP
heading WTPN PGTW and the warnings from
NAVPACMETOCCEN Pearl Harbor are listed under
the MANOP heading WTPZ PHNL. The blank space
is for the numerical sequence of the warning.
Special advisories and warnings are issued in the
event of significant changes in intensity or movement.
Tropical cyclone warning messages are transmitted
via AUTODIN and the Fleet Multichannel Broadcast
every 6 hours for storms in the Northern Hemisphere.
NAVMETOCCOM centers monitor Southern
Hemisphere tropical cyclones in their individual AORs.
Because of the limited data and weather satellite
coverage of the Southern Hemisphere, warnings are
issued by AUTODIN and Fleet Multichannel Broadcast
only at 12- and 24-hour intervals and may contain less
specific information than Northern Hemisphere
warnings.
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